After the first two rounds of the NCAA Basketball tournament, I’m not doing too badly with my picks. If I could have been the office pool I’d have been among the leaders. In the first round I correctly picked 23 of the 32 winners correctly. In the second round , I picked 13 of 16. My one big mistake was to back West Virginia to beat first Dayton and then third seeded Kansas. Instead West Virginia was upset in the first round by the 11th seeded Dayton Flyers who then proceeded to lose to Kansas. On the other hand , I did pick 12th seeded Arizona to advance to the round of 16.
Still, though my winning percentage of close to 75 % looks impressive, I realize that is deceiving. There have been comparatively few upsets so far. It is the next two rounds that will separate the men from the boys as the remaining teams are closer to each other in ability. As usual, I have stuck to a conservative approach, banking on only two mild upsets on the way to the Final Four. One is in the West where I think Memphis will upset Connecticut. The Tigers have been on a tear , winning 20 + games in a row, they are a tough physical team and they have a great coach in John Calipari. My other upset prediction is Duke over Pittsburgh in the East final, mainly because I’m a fan of Duke and Coach K. The other two regionals I feel will go according to form with North Carolina beating Syracuse and Louisville packing off Michigan State.
My picks for the Final Four : Louisville , Memphis, Duke and North Carolina.
Let’s see if I’ve got it right!